Friday 30 December 2011

And the rest of the bets for this weekend

The rest of the bets to add to the Southampton bets for Friday which were posted this afternoon.

Still Christmas and want to sit down with the family, but not quite finished placing all the bets yet so some gaps where prices should be.

HOMES None

DRAWS Derby (3.55) Burnley (3.35) Reading (4.1) Sheff Utd , Macclesfield, Bradford

AWAYS None

UNDER 2.5 GOALS Derby (1.91), Burnley, Reading, Sheff Utd, Macclesfield, Bradford

OVER 2.5 GOALS Norwich (2.02) Bristol Rovers

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Norwich (1.75) Bristol Rovers

So that's another 16 bets at £6 each (stake reduced - see previous post)  =£96 staked.

Good luck if following and a Happy New Year to everyone.

Bet for tonight and latest review

There will be more bets posted for the weekend either later tonight or tomorrow morning, but firstly the bets for tonight.

SOUTHAMPTON v BRISTOL CITY to be backed as both a draw (4.8) and in the under 2.5 goals market (2.18).

2 bets at £6 each = £12 staked  - reducing stakes slightly from £7.50 due to recent poor run- something I rarely do, but am disappointed with the current run of just 4 winners from the last 20 bets, especially following on from 24 winners from 33 bets produced by exactly the same system less than three weeks ago. Add the 2 together of course and we get 28 winners from 53 bets - a strike rate in excess of 50% and a decent profit overall, but of course winners never spread themselves nice and evenly.

Anyway, moving on, we are still in profit for the season, although it's obviously less than it was - currently £44 which represents a return of 1.9% on the £2349 staked. Back later.

Friday 23 December 2011

Bets for 26th and 27th December

Loss of £1.50 on the 2 midweek bets. Up to date profit figures will be given next week, after the results of the following 18 bets are known.

HOMES Preston  2.3, Sheff Utd 1.85

DRAWS Man Utd 9.2, Notts Forest 3.75, Leyton Orient 3.5, Colchester 3.45, Crawley 4.2

AWAYS Crystal Palace 8.0, Oxford 2.4

UNDER 2.5 Man Utd 2.98,  Notts Forest 2.22, Leyton Orient 2.0, Colchester 1.82, Crawley 2.26

OVER 2.5 Stoke 2.12, Huddersfield 1.78

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE  Stoke 1.93, Huddersfield 2.04

18 bets at £7.50 = £135 staked.

Good luck to anybody following and a very happy and peaceful Christmas to you all, and if anyone gets a puppy at Christmas, please, please remember; a dog is not just for Christmas - with a bit of luck there'll be some left over for Boxing Day.

Tuesday 20 December 2011

Weekend review and bets for 20th and 21st December

A small loss of £13.50 on the weekend's bets.This still leaves me £133 in profit overall, which represents an ROI of 6.0% on the £2199 staked this season.

Full top league action in England , France and Italy this midweek, but the system comes up with just two bets, which are:

DRAW Saint-Etienne 3.25

OVER 2.5 GOALS Blackburn 1.8

2 bets at £7.50 =£15 staked

Back on Friday or Saturday with more bets, as whilst the rest of Europe sensibly packs up for Christmas and beyond, English football returns with a vengeance on Boxing Day, despite the likely hazards of fog, snow, ice, tube strikes, too much turkey, and being identified in the House of Commons as serial adulterers.

Friday 16 December 2011

Bets for 17th and 18th December

After last week's excellent returns (see previous post) we now have a cushion against a poor run. Not that a cushion will be much help if we crash and burn. (140 miles per hour?! - No worries , officer, I was perfectly safe -  I've got a cushion on the back seat!). Anyway ,here's hoping that's not our fate this weekend.

As always, these are a record of my actual bets -  each and every one is supported by hard -earned cash.
This week's bets follow, though I've not had time to place them all yet. Those that I  have placed, or left a price which I expect to be matched while I'm watching The Comedy Awards, I've quoted the price for. Here goes....

HOMES Stevenage 1.95,  Parma

DRAWS Cardiff 3.5,  Leeds 3.55,  Bournemouth 3.5,  Accrington 3.4,  Crewe 4.0, Bordeaux 4.0

AWAYS Arsenal, Yeovil 3.25

UNDER 2.5 GOALS  Cardiff 1.8, Leeds, Bournemouth 1.875, Accrington 1.83, Crewe, Bordeaux

OVER 2.5 GOALS West Ham, Burton, Rotherham, Caen, Sporting Gijon

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE  West Ham, Burton, Rotherham, Caen, Sporting Gijon 2.1

Total of 26 bets at the new stake of £7.50 (as explained in previous post) which I make £195 - good luck if following.

Wednesday 14 December 2011

One of those weekends when everything went right..........

......and I've been betting (or investing as bookies like to call it ) long enough to remember more than one weekend when I've been looking at the bottom of the whisky glass, as the saying goes, so last weekend I am going to enjoy.

Of the 33 bets made, 24 won, which gave me a return of £353 for  £198 staked; in other words a profit of £155. The bank, which started at £300 towards the end of August, and which had never quite been in overall profit despite having threatened to do so  several times recently, finally burst through the profit barrier and now stands at £446.50, an overall profit of £146.50.

For the record (mine as much as anybody's - in case I lose the book in which everything's recorded!) the original bank was split into £5 bets. After 234 such bets I decided that whilst a profit had not been made I was in no danger of losing the bank, so increased the stakes to £6 for the next 139 bets which is where I am now. There have been 373 bets altogether, on which I have staked a total of £2004. The profit of £146.50 therefore represents a return on investment of 7.3%. This is actual net profit, i.e. after deduction of any commission payable when exchanges were used.

The question now is how far to increase stakes without going too far and I've decided that for each (hopefully there'll be more than one!) full 30% increase  over the starting bank which was £300 - 30% of which is £90 - I will increase the stake by 25%, which will protect the bank as it gets bigger. So, on that basis, as the bank has passed £390 stakes are now £7.50, with the next increase kicking in if it reaches £480.

Anyway that's enough figures to bore people with, so back with this weekend's bets on Friday.

Friday 9 December 2011

Bets for Dec 7th - 9th and review of last weekend

A good weekend last time around, with a profit of £25 from just £54 staked.

A lot more bets have been indicated this week and one of them (Torquay) is tonight, so without further ado.....

HOMES None

DRAWS Preston 3.55, Torquay 4.0, Marseilles 3.6, Atalanta 3.35, Bologna 3.33

AWAYS  Cardiff 2.875,  Leeds 2.63, Bournemouth 6.5

OVER 2.5 GOALS  Norwich 1.9,  WBA 1.95,Sunderland 1.9, Barnsley 1.75, Tranmere 2.05, Wycombe 1.8, Hereford 1.91, Morecambe 1.8 Nancy 2.375 Rennes 2.375, Novarro 2.15, Rayo Vallecano 2.375,  Espanyol 2.16

UNDER 2.5 GOALS  Preston 2.0, Torquay 2.2, Bologna 1.8

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE     WBA 1.91, Sunderland 1.73, Tranmere 1.73, Hereford 1.73, Nancy 2.2, Rennes 2.375, Novarro 2.0 Rayo Vallecano 2.1,  Espanyol 1.91

I make that 33 bets at £6 each = £198 staked.

Good luck if following.

Friday 2 December 2011

Really enjoyed watching..........

........Crystal Palace put Man U to the sword the other night. Always have a fondness for Palace as my dad supported them. Great to see a side that really believed they could win, especially as I'm used to watching Derby (though only on Sky nowadays) who after a promising early season start are now on a losing run of what seems to be something like 473 but may I suppose be one or two less. At the moment you can see the confidence drain out of Derby almost the minute the opposition scores, though scoring will hopefully be a problem for Palace when the two sides  meet tonight (Friday), especially as -  Wednesday's commentator kept on  telling us -  'Palace haven't even scored in their previous five matches'. This line of enquiry was kept up in the dressing room interview afterwards, words to the effect of  'You've not scored in the last 5 matches and you haven't won  any  either.'  Well, if I was a bookie and knew that Palace hadn't scored in their last 5 matches, I could pretty safely offer big odds against them having won any of them.

Anyway back to business and a profit of £12 from our midweek bets, thanks largely to a 3-3 draw in the Italian league, a fluke as Cassini would say and he's right of course, except that the bookies factor in the possibility of 3-3 or even 4-4 scores (admittedly they're small factors) when working out the overall draw odds price. But that said you are looking for low scoring games when betting on draws and whilst 0-0 or 1-1  is job well done on my part, 3-3 is more of a sigh of relief time, though I'll take it over 1-0 any day! Talking of low scoring matches, I note that Cassini is also nicely in profit backing the same matches for under 2.5 goals so his system is obviously looking at the right matches. I am even tempted to subscribe myself and dutch  each of his selections as a 0-0 and 1-1 correct score. (PS - I'm not his agent!)

On to the weekend's bets and though two leagues are missing due to the FA Cup, the system has still found very few bets. Here they are.

HOME Granada 2.25

DRAW Monchengladbach 3.7

UNDER 2.5 GOALS Monchengladbach  2.06

OVER 2.5 GOALS QPR 2.1,  Blackpool 1.92 , Athletico Madrid 1.80

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE  QPR 1.82, Blackpool 1.73, Athletico Madrid 1.83

JEREMY CLARKSON to be pushed in front of a train and then shot (just to make certain). Big gamble on this one - now down to 1.01.

9 bets in all at £6 each = £54 staked. Good luck if following.

Tuesday 29 November 2011

Weekend review and bets for tonight - 29th November

A promising Saturday was let down by a poor Sunday and we lost £18.50 on the weekend. The bank currently stands at £254.50, which is £45.50 short of its starting point.

Tomight's bets

DRAW Napoli  3.25

OVER 2.5 GOALS Derby 2.1 Watford 2.0

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Derby 1.86 Watford 1.73

5 bets at £6 =£30 staked.

Good luck if following.

Friday 25 November 2011

Bets for 26th - 28th November

Disappointed to find only 2 draws from 11 selected last weekend. However, the bets overall made a £10 profit from our small stakes, leaving the bank at £273 from our starting point of £300. This weekend's bits and pieces or bets and prices as follows:

HOMES  Bournemouth 2.25

DRAWS  Sheff Wed 4.1  Lazio 3.2  Cesena 3.25 A C Milan 4.4 Malaga 3.75

AWAYS Cheltenham 3.75

OVER 2.5 Stoke 1.95 Norwich 1.95 Crewe 1.79 Gillingham 1.8 Plymouth 1.8 Augsburg 1.95 Werder Bremen 1.73

UNDER 2.5  Sheff Wed 2.2 Lazio 1.73 Cesena 1.85  A\ C Milan 2.05 Malaga 1.8

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Stoke 1.83 Norwich 1.73 Gillingham 1.75

22 bets at £6 each = £132 staked.

Good luck if following.

Friday 18 November 2011

Bets for this weekend

Seems a long time since the last round of bets but they yielded a profit of £12 to leave the bank currently at £263 from its starting point of £300. The figures have thrown up a record number of draws this week - eleven of them. Here they are, together with the rest of the bets and the prices.

HOMES  None

DRAWS  Swansea 3.4,  Middlesbrough 3.6, Reading 3.5, Watford 3.4, Millwall 3.75, Wimbledon 3.6, Bradford 3.55, Parma 3.25, Villa Real 3.45, Valencia 4.4, Racing Santander 3.35

AWAYS  West Ham 1.8, Shrewsbury 2.375,

OVER 2.5 GOALS  Stoke 2.1, Wigan 1.95, Derby 2.0, Oldham 1.73, Scunthorpe 1.73, Wolfsburg 1.73 Stuttgart 1.75, Athletico Madrid 1.91

UNDER 2.5 GOALS  Swansea 2.05, Middlesbrough 1.91, Reading 1.85, Watford 1.85, Millwall 1.83, Wimbledon 2.05, Bradford 2.1, Valencia 2.5

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE  Stoke 2.0, Wigan 1.8, Derby 1.8, Stuugart 1.91, Athletico Madrid 1.95

I make that 34 bets at £6 each  = £204 staked.

Good luck if following.

 

Saturday 5 November 2011

Bets for 5th and 6th November

Palace let me down in midweek so the bank now stands at £251.

This weekend's bets with prices where they've already been placed with the bookie or matched on Betfair.

HOMES None

DRAWS Cardiff  3.75 Reading 3.5 Rennes 3.5 Palermo 3.75 Athletic Bilbao 6.5

AWAYS Shrewsbury 2.25 Toulouse 3.4

OVER 2.5 A Villa 1.96 Bolton 2.04 Ipswich 1.825 Leicester - Exeter 1.85 Notts Co - Oldham 1.85 Gillingham 1.89 Caen 2.0 Atalanta 2.3 Mallorca - Getafe 2.0

QVER 2.5 DOUBLE  Blackburn/Plymouth 2.62

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE A Villa 1.81 Blackburn 1.8 Bolton - Ipswich 1.8 Notts Co - Caen 2.0 Atalanta - Mallorca 1.9 Getafe -

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE DOUBLE Leicester/Exeter 2.69   Oldham/Gillingham 2.83

UNDER 2.5  Cardiff - Palermo 1.95 Athletic Bilbao 2.625

UNDER 2.5  DOUBLE Reading/Rennes 2.895

35 bets at £6  = £210 staked.

Good luck if following.

Tuesday 1 November 2011

Tonight's bet

Been so busy only just remembered I hadn't posted. In all truth it was a poor weekend and the bank fell to £257.
Up to now I have been staking at £5 level stakes from my £300 bank. From tonight I am staking at£6 level stakes to fit in with my other betting.
Just one bet tonight - Crystal Palace to beat Portsmouth at 2.3 with Victor Chandler. Good luck if following.

Friday 28 October 2011

Bets for 29th - 31st October and Midweek review

Net profit of £26.79 in midweek to my £5 level stakes leaves the bank just shy of going into overall profit. It currently stands at  £291.90 from it's starting point of £300.
 One draw from two in midweek in my chase after Cassini - gives me 12 draws  from 38 selections and a net profit on investment  of  £38.85 (or 20.4%).on the draws.
This weekend's bets

HOMES  C Palace (1.8)

DRAWS  Millwall, (3.5), Macclesfield (3.4), Toulouse (3.2), Cagliari (3.3), Sp Gijon (3.4)

AWAYS Stevenage (at Bury) (2.62),  Marseilles (at Dijon) (1.95), Napoli (at Catania) ( 2.87), Rayo Vallecano (at Villa Real) (4.5) Espanyol (at Malaga) (5.0)

UNDER 2.5 GOALS  Millwall (1.85), Macclesfield (1.8), Sp Gijon (1.8)

OVER 2.5 GOALS Everton (1.91), Wigan (2.24), Bristol Rovers (1.86), Northampton (1.8), Lecce (2.05), Athletico Madrid  (1.73)

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Everton (1.8), Wigan (1.81),  Lecce (1.73), Athletico Madrid (2.0)

24 bets in all at £5 each for me.

Good luck if following.

Tuesday 25 October 2011

Bets for 25th - 27th October

A few midweek bets including a couple of draws as I attempt to give Cassini a run for his money.

HOMES Birmingham (2.375),  Espanyol (2.25)

DRAWS Brentford (3.6) Scunthorpe (3.65)

AWAYS Hereford  (at Northampton) (4.33), Siena (at Novarra) (3.4)

UNDER 2.5  Brentford (1.9), Scunthorpe (2.25)

OVER 2.5 Colchester (1.9)

Good luck if following.

Monday 24 October 2011

Weekend Review

We finished the latest round of bets with a decent profit - a return of 19.8 points from 14 staked - which translates to a profit of £29.02 on the weekend. All thanks largely to Messi missing a last minute penalty for Barcelona, and why not - he's worth millions - he can afford to throw thirty quid my way.

The bank now stands at £265.11 from it's starting point of £300 and is in grave danger of going into overall profit. However, as I said in my last post,' 'Pride comes before a fall' - as indeed it did when my first entry after having been officially accepted into Cassini's XX draw competition 'went down in flames',  as Cassini  very aptly and amusingly summed up Man Utd 1 Man City 1( plus 5).

Back tomorrow with the midweek bets.

Sunday 23 October 2011

Cassini can I join the XX draws competition please?

Nice profit so far this weekend thanks largely to Messi messing up his last minute penalty for Barcelona, so my biggest priced draw of this season or possibly any other came in.
Did mention at the start of this blog that I would like to be able to challenge Cassini in the draw predictions but then started off with just one draw from my first eleven selections so thought it best to keep quiet! Since then and prior to tonight,  draw predictions had improved to a respectable 10 from 33 (they're all listed in the blog posts) but showed only a 2.2% profit (£168.65 returned from £165 staked).
Managed to back the draw at  Barcelona with my fiver on Betfair at 9.6 (less commission) so now have a strike rate of 11 from 34 and a return of £214.50 from £170 staked.. This represents a profit of 26.2% and this figure is after any Betfair commission deductions.
So striking whilst the iron is hot and fully ignoring the fact that pride comes before a fall, can I join the XX draw competition please?

The last page of the internet  http://www.1112.net/lastpage.html

Friday 21 October 2011

Midweek review and bets for 22nd - 24th October

Reading could only draw in midweek which means the bank currently stands at £236.09.

The system hasn't thrown up quite so bets this weekend but has decided to include another Barcelona draw (see previous post), although this time at only 8-1. They can't win all their matches and I shall be backing everything listed below.

Prices are the best available (with either Betfair or with bookies with whom I have an account) when I checked last night. If I use Betfair I  deduct commission on a winning bet before giving the bank update.

Good luck if following.

HOMES   None

DRAWS   MAN UTD (3.5)  BARCELONA (9.0)  BRIGHTON (3.5)

AWAYS   STUTTGART (at Nurnberg) (2.875)  CHIEVO (at Inter Milan) (7.0)

OVER 2.5 GOALS   BOLTON (2.0)  CHESTERFIELD (1.83)  DAGENHAM (2.1) ROTHERHAM (1.76)

UNDER 2.5 GOALS MAN UTD (2.1) BARCELONA (3.4) BRIGHTON (2.1)

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE  BOLTON (1.73) DAGENHAM (1.91)

Tuesday 18 October 2011

For a long time..............

..............the 16-1 draw shot mentioned mentioned in last week's bets had every chance of proving successful. Unfortunately the referee then blew the whistle to kick off the match and reality set in. Nevertheless,despite this minor setback we were showing a decent profit after Saturday's round of matches. Unfortunately the weekend also has a Sunday in it - a day which I never liked when I was growing up as you were never allowed to do the things you enjoyed doing the other six days. Even now the day only rates somewhere between Tuesday and Wednesday in the league table of day popularity in my book - and after this Sunday's results it's in danger of having to apply to me for re-election. Suffice to say we finished £12.35 down on the weekend bets and the bank currently stands at £241.09.

Just one bet for me from the midweek round of matches - Reading to beat Derby.(Best price 1.8)

Good luck if following and I'll be back on Friday.

Friday 14 October 2011

Bets for15th and 16th Oct and review of last weekend

Only 3 bets last weekend due to internationals, but two of them won to give just over a point profit. Bank currently stands at £253.44 from its starting point  of £300. Usual hectic Friday, made  worse by NPower  who were going to reduce my direct debit but have failed to do so. I am now waiting for an apologetic phone call which somebody promised to make before half pasr one, but as its now quarter past three I'm not holding my breath. On with this weekend's bets, inluding a draw which I've backed at 16-1  (  I'm not holding my breath on that either!).

HOMES Middlesbrough, Crawley

DRAWS Liverpool, Macclesfield, Chievo, Lazio, Barcelona, Sevilla

AWAY   Fulham

UNDER 2.5 GOALS  Liverpool, Man City, Macclesfield, Lazio, Barcelona, Sevilla

OVER 2.5 GOALS QPR, Wigan, Bristol City, Coventry, Brentford, Accrington, Barnet, Catania, Genoa, Novarra, Rayo Vallecano

BOTH TEAMS| TO SCORE  QPR, Wigan, Catania, Genoa, Novarra, Rayo Vallecano

32 bets at £5 = £160 staked

Good luck if following.

Friday 7 October 2011

Bets For Sat 8th October

Just over 5 points lost last weekend and the bank currently stands at £247.29. Just 3 bets tomorrow from a much reduced fixture list.

HOMES Colchester (Best price 1.83) Sheff Wed  (1.73)

AWAY Southend (at Crewe) ( 2.5)

Good luck if following

Friday 30 September 2011

Bets for 1st and 2nd October

Everything is listed in the name of the home team (to make it easy to find on coupons or Betfair,etc.) with the type of bet clearly indicated in each case.

 I don't give the prices as everyone will get slightly different but I do obviously check the prices before I put the bets up. My own bank, which I always give after each set of results is known, is made up of the prices I actually got. In some cases better are available with bookies with whom I don't have an account but I don't use those in my figures. Also, if I use Betfair I deduct the relevant commission on a winning bet so my figures are accurate.

HOMES Ipswich, Racing Santander

DRAWS  Leicester, MK Dons, Fiorentina, Malaga

AWAYS  Middlesbrough, Freiberg

UNDER 2.5 GOALS Leicester, MK Dons, Fiorentina, Malaga

OVER 2.5 GOALS Bolton, Leyton Orient, Barnet, Port Vale, Torquay, Bordeaux

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Bolton, Leyton Orient, Barnet, Port Vale, Torquay, Bordeaux

24 bets at £5 each  = £120 staked in all.

Good luck if following.

Wednesday 28 September 2011

Another decent profit.......

.......with 3 winners from 4 bets and only an Ipswich goal a minute from time spoiling the full house.

£19.50 profit added to the bank, which now stands at £272.57 from it's starting point of £300 with most of the early season loss now recovered.

Thanks for reading and back Friday with the weekend bets.

Monday 26 September 2011

Nearly but not quite....

...in the attempt for three consecutive profitable sessions. We staked 25 points at the weekend and 23.3 of them were returned, equating to a small loss of £8.45. The bank now stands at £253.07 from a starting point of £300.

Not many matches this midweek and bets in just 2 of them - the matches at West Ham and Middlesbrough should both be backed as draws and in the under 2.5 goals market.

Good luck if following.

Friday 23 September 2011

Looking for the hat trick.....

.......of profitable sessions following last weekend and this midweek.

25 bets are indicated and I'm following my usual procedure of listing everything in the home teams' name and clearly indicating the type of bet.

HOMES QPR, Aldershot, Oxford

DRAWS Cardiff, Bournemouth

AWAYS Wigan, Bristol City, Rotherham, Real Zaragoza

UNDER 2.5 GOALS Cardiff, Bournemouth

OVER 2.5 GOALS Liverpool, Doncaster, Bury, Bradford, Cheltenham, Augsburg, Mainz

BOTH TEAMS TO CCORE Liverpool, Doncaster, Bury, Cheltenham, Augsburg, Mainz, Schalke 04

Sorry it's just a list of bets at the moment - just far too busy to write anything else. Still, profit is the ultimate aim, so let's see if we can take another step in the right direction.

Thursday 22 September 2011

Midweek Bets Review

Have to be happy with another profit. 6 wins, 4 losers and 1 no bet translated to a profit of £13.05 from the £55 staked.
It all helps to make inroads into the early season losses and the starting bank of £300 has risen from its low point  of £184.95 less than  a couple of weeks ago to a more respectable £261.52.
Back tomorrow with the weekend bets.

Tuesday 20 September 2011

Midweek bets 21st and 22nd September

The attempt to build on the weekend's success has thrown up the following 11 bets.
As per last time in all cases the matches are listed in the name of the home team, but the type of bet is clearly indicated. Good luck if following

HOME Malaga

DRAW L'Orient, Rayo Vallecano

AWAY (Draw No Bet) A C Milan

AWAY Genoa

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE St Etiennes, Cesena

OVER 2.5 GOALS St Etiennes, Cesena

UNDER 2.5 GOALS L'Orient, Rayo Vallecano  

Monday 19 September 2011

Now that's a bit more like it! A decent profit on the weekend.

Nice to report a big step in the right direction this weekend after what had been a disappointing season so far. Prior to Saturday my bank stood at £184.95 from a starting bank of £300 at the beginning of the season.
Following a good Saturday and Sunday, culminating in Real Betis's win at Athletic Bilbao late last night, I had 15 winners from the 23 bets given  and a total return of 35.7 points from the 23 staked -  a profit on the weekend of £63.52 to my £5 level stakes.This has taken my bank back up to £248.47, which although  still representing an overall loss, has not detracted from the fact that it's still been a satisfying couple of days.
Back tomorrow with any midweek selections.

Friday 16 September 2011

Bets for 17th and 18th September

First of all apologies for no post in respect of the midweek league bets just gone by. Considerable manual input is required to update the system and work can get in the way when I have to do this twice rather than once in a week.That said, results are not going according to plan at present so it may have been a blessing in disguise. The current bank is £184 .95 from a starting bank of £300.This weekend's bets are as follows - in all cases I am naming the home team only but clearly indicating what the bet is

HOME     Hull, Chesterfield

DRAW     Swansea, Brest, Evian Thonon Gallar, Nuremburg

AWAY     Leicester, MK Dons, Macclesfield, A Bilbao

OVER 2.5 GOALS Bolton, Notts Forest, Crawley, Kaiserslautern, Granada

UNDER 2.5 GOALS Swansea, Evian Thonon Gallar,, Nuremburg

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Bolton, Notts Forest, Crawley, Kaiserslautern, Granada

23 bets in all and hoping for a turnaround.

Back in midweek, work permitting.

Friday 9 September 2011

Sod's Law and Bets for Sept 9th - 11th

I think it's paragraph 17 of the Law of Sod which states that anyone publishing his bets for the first time will go instantly into the red, no matter how well he or she may have done when keeping their bets to themselves.
The strike rate improved last week, but sadly the profit did not and to £5 stakes my original £300 bank currently stands at £216.05.

26 bets are flagged up as value this weekend, the first of which kicks off tonight - B LEVERKUSEN to win away at Ausburg.

Three other aways - SHEFFIELD UNITED at Scunthorpe and two outsiders (to say the least) in the Premier League - SWANSEA at Arsenal and WIGAN at Manchester City. These last two I am betting in the DRAW NO BET market.

Just one home - WOLVES to beat Tottenham

Five draws - the matches at Everton, Stoke, Huddersfield, Shrewsbury and B Dortmund. These 5 games should also be backed in the under 2.5 goals market.

Also 5 matches to back in the over 2.5 goals market; those at - Fulham, Bury, Swindon, A C Ajaccio and Caen. These 5 matches should also be backed in the Both Teams To Score market.

Finally the game at Werder Bremen should be backed in the Both Teams To Score market only.

Good luck if following.

Friday 2 September 2011

Bets for Saturday Sept 3rd

Well August has finished with 7 winners from 25 bets, a strike rate of  just 25% which is well below the last 2  complete seasons which have finished on over 40%, so unsurprisingly a loss of 12 points. My starting bank of £300 at £5 stakes is currently £240.01.
Only 2 leagues from our normal 8 this weekend due to the international break, but surprisingly the system/ratings - call it what you will- has thrown up a largish number of bets -14  in all.
Firstly, one home win - MORECAMBE to beat Bradford.
Two aways-  BRISTOL ROVERS to win at Crawley and MACCLESFIELD to win at Torquay

In the over 2.5 goals market Scunthorpe v Colchester

The following matches should be backed in the over 2.5 goals and in the Both teams to score market
Chesterfield v L Orient
Notts Co v Bournemouth
Wimbledon v Port Vale
Barnet v Accrington

Finally Hereford v Dagenham should be backed as both as a draw and in the under 2.5 goals market

14 bets @ £5 = £70 risked if you're following my staking


Saturday 27 August 2011

Sunday August 28th

 Back from hols late Saturday night and will update results later in week. In the meantime just one bet for today -

ST ETIENNES to win away at Sochaux.

Friday 19 August 2011

This weekend's selections

Was going to do a longer post but am going on holiday tomorrow for a week  and time has beaten me to it so it's selections only. A brief word about the first set of results. 8.8 points lost from the 11 staked. A goal by Morecambe in the 92nd minute cost us two winning bets and 5.3 of those points, but clearly there will be times when late goals save us.Betting doesn't run smoothly, otherwise we'd all be doing it.
I said in a previous post I was working on a 60 point bank and I'm using £5 stakes while the bank hopefully builds up. My starting bank of £300 is now currently £256.08 after those first results, so continuing with the stakes at £5.

The system bets are as follows - first of all tonight's match

B M Gladbach v Wolfsburg should be backed as both a draw and in the under 2.5 goals market.

The rest of the matches all take place tomorrow

TOULOUSE to win away at Nice
MK DONS to win at home to Chesterfield
WIMBLEDON to win at home to Hereford

The following to be backed in the Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets

Burnley v Cardiff
Peterborough v Ipswich
Sheff Wed v Notts County

Finally back Torquay v Crawley both as a draw and in the Under 2.5 goals market.

Right, realistically the next post is likely to be Tuesday August 30th but it may be worth checking a couple of days earlier.

Monday 15 August 2011

First selections

Going on holiday soon but some of the leagues have completed 2 rounds of matches which is enough for the system to kick in.
The following are the selections for Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Time permitting I'll be back on Friday with the weekend matches but no post next week due to my holiday.Will be betting all these selections with my own money (but not too much initially!). Had a good look at last two season's records and for the purposes of recording on here I am starting with a 60 point bank with 1 point level stake on each outcome.I'll review the bank probably once or twice a week and if it's reached a new high the next round of stakes will be one sixtieth of the new total. If there's been a fall the stakes will stay as they were - they won't decrease. Even allowing for the worst possible scenario I would be amazed if we come anywhere near to busting the bank  but I will keep a close watch on things (my money's at risk, too!), making any amendments if necessary.
As I said in the introduction I want this to be a full, honest and accurate record of my bets so any profit will be recorded at the prices I take - better ones may be available. I will of course deduct commission for any winning bet made on the exchanges.

Tuesday - Northampton to win at Bristol Rovers

The following five matches to be backed both  as draws and also in the under 2.5 goals market (let's see if my draw record can match Cassini's).

Tuesday- Ipswich  v Southampton
               Sheff U v Walsall
               Cheltenham v Morecambe
Wednesday - Cardiff v Brighton
                      Blackpool v Derby

I make that 11 points staked in all. Best of luck if following.
             








Wednesday 3 August 2011

Introduction

First of all the title of the blog. Obviously a nod of appreciation to the daddy of all sports related blogs and the one that's likely to be going long after most of us have gone to the wall.
The title of the blog does nevertheless bear significant relevance to its content, as it's a football profit and loss blog with the selections (all system based) exclusively dependent on the defensive qualities of both teams rather than the more common and rather obvious  'Manchester United have scored 7 in the last 2 games and must be good value ?!!? to win again today. That approach may work - I've no idea, I've never tried it- but if it does it's going to bring out the obvious selections that the bookies have got well covered. On the other hand  Brian Clough (who managed my club Derby for the best 6 years of their lives) used to say that a good goalkeeper was worth a goal start.What's good enough for him will do for me. Goalies are the last line of defence and there was a time when all goalkeepers used to wear green. With me so far?
Anyway I didn't get into football betting seriously until about three years ago. And of course it started with outright win results, never the draw because who wants to watch a match and see a draw, not me - not then anyway. But of course as Cassini has alluded to in the past, fewer people  back the draw so therefore the bookies offer better odds for it.
Couldn't make a profit from outright wins so back to the drawing board and started looking at the over under 2.5 goals market. Only 2 possible outcomes and liquidity isn't too much of a problem in most of the leagues I look at, which incidentally are the English Premier League, Championship, Leagues one and two and the French, German, Italian and Spanish versions of the Premier League. That's plenty for me. Anyway, as I was saying , only 2 possible outcomes, should be fairly easy to get an edge so get one and hey presto! Well it wasn't that easy of course. If it was we'd all be doing it and then of course the edge would disappear. So I made another trip back to the drawing board, the first of many as it turned out over the last three  seasons.Which of course you need to. Sit on your backside for too long and any edge will disappear whist you're scratching it.
To cut a long story short I very gradually developed a system to select matches suitable for an over or under 2.5 goals bet. These produced sideline bets, since both teams had to pass the system requirements before a bet was indicated. For example any match which I backed on the over 2.5 goals market was almost always also a candidate for the Both Teams To Score market.Likewise you don't have to be Einstein to deduce that a match in which you think 2 or less goals will be scored is also more likely to be a draw than one where the goalies are frequently retrieving the ball from the back of the net (there are 6 possible scorelines with 2 goals or less - 2 of them are draws). The odds on offer for the draw, never less than 2-1, means that if you are backing in the under 2.5 goals market it makes sense to back the draw as well and I had considerable success with this last season. One further benefit from my final version of the system was that it threw up the occasional match where one team was currently considerably defensively superior to the other and these I did back in the home or away market.
So my intention is to publish all my bets in advance on the blog this season. I categorically don't have a separate subscription based website I'm trying to get people interested in and I  absolutely have nothing to sell. The reason I'm publishing them is that I want a permanent record of them all in one place and, if I'm honest and things go according to plan, so people can look back and say well perhaps he has got something.
The only thing I can say is that I am as confident as you can be with something like this. I will be betting every selection on here (to small stakes as sometimes there can be a lot of bets on the same day) and if things go as they have done for the last two seasons I will make a profit - but if they don't, I won't. There won't be any selections until at least one league has had two sets of matches as I need that many before the system kicks in and in any case early season form is  unreliable.I am also having a week's holiday towards the end of August, during which I won't be touching a computer with a bargepole. I am undecided about dipping my toe in the water before I go away but I will post in plenty of time so people know my intentions.