Back from hols late Saturday night and will update results later in week. In the meantime just one bet for today -
ST ETIENNES to win away at Sochaux.
Saturday 27 August 2011
Friday 19 August 2011
This weekend's selections
Was going to do a longer post but am going on holiday tomorrow for a week and time has beaten me to it so it's selections only. A brief word about the first set of results. 8.8 points lost from the 11 staked. A goal by Morecambe in the 92nd minute cost us two winning bets and 5.3 of those points, but clearly there will be times when late goals save us.Betting doesn't run smoothly, otherwise we'd all be doing it.
I said in a previous post I was working on a 60 point bank and I'm using £5 stakes while the bank hopefully builds up. My starting bank of £300 is now currently £256.08 after those first results, so continuing with the stakes at £5.
The system bets are as follows - first of all tonight's match
B M Gladbach v Wolfsburg should be backed as both a draw and in the under 2.5 goals market.
The rest of the matches all take place tomorrow
TOULOUSE to win away at Nice
MK DONS to win at home to Chesterfield
WIMBLEDON to win at home to Hereford
The following to be backed in the Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets
Burnley v Cardiff
Peterborough v Ipswich
Sheff Wed v Notts County
Finally back Torquay v Crawley both as a draw and in the Under 2.5 goals market.
Right, realistically the next post is likely to be Tuesday August 30th but it may be worth checking a couple of days earlier.
I said in a previous post I was working on a 60 point bank and I'm using £5 stakes while the bank hopefully builds up. My starting bank of £300 is now currently £256.08 after those first results, so continuing with the stakes at £5.
The system bets are as follows - first of all tonight's match
B M Gladbach v Wolfsburg should be backed as both a draw and in the under 2.5 goals market.
The rest of the matches all take place tomorrow
TOULOUSE to win away at Nice
MK DONS to win at home to Chesterfield
WIMBLEDON to win at home to Hereford
The following to be backed in the Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score markets
Burnley v Cardiff
Peterborough v Ipswich
Sheff Wed v Notts County
Finally back Torquay v Crawley both as a draw and in the Under 2.5 goals market.
Right, realistically the next post is likely to be Tuesday August 30th but it may be worth checking a couple of days earlier.
Monday 15 August 2011
First selections
Going on holiday soon but some of the leagues have completed 2 rounds of matches which is enough for the system to kick in.
The following are the selections for Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Time permitting I'll be back on Friday with the weekend matches but no post next week due to my holiday.Will be betting all these selections with my own money (but not too much initially!). Had a good look at last two season's records and for the purposes of recording on here I am starting with a 60 point bank with 1 point level stake on each outcome.I'll review the bank probably once or twice a week and if it's reached a new high the next round of stakes will be one sixtieth of the new total. If there's been a fall the stakes will stay as they were - they won't decrease. Even allowing for the worst possible scenario I would be amazed if we come anywhere near to busting the bank but I will keep a close watch on things (my money's at risk, too!), making any amendments if necessary.
As I said in the introduction I want this to be a full, honest and accurate record of my bets so any profit will be recorded at the prices I take - better ones may be available. I will of course deduct commission for any winning bet made on the exchanges.
Tuesday - Northampton to win at Bristol Rovers
The following five matches to be backed both as draws and also in the under 2.5 goals market (let's see if my draw record can match Cassini's).
Tuesday- Ipswich v Southampton
Sheff U v Walsall
Cheltenham v Morecambe
Wednesday - Cardiff v Brighton
Blackpool v Derby
I make that 11 points staked in all. Best of luck if following.
The following are the selections for Tuesday and Wednesday this week.
Time permitting I'll be back on Friday with the weekend matches but no post next week due to my holiday.Will be betting all these selections with my own money (but not too much initially!). Had a good look at last two season's records and for the purposes of recording on here I am starting with a 60 point bank with 1 point level stake on each outcome.I'll review the bank probably once or twice a week and if it's reached a new high the next round of stakes will be one sixtieth of the new total. If there's been a fall the stakes will stay as they were - they won't decrease. Even allowing for the worst possible scenario I would be amazed if we come anywhere near to busting the bank but I will keep a close watch on things (my money's at risk, too!), making any amendments if necessary.
As I said in the introduction I want this to be a full, honest and accurate record of my bets so any profit will be recorded at the prices I take - better ones may be available. I will of course deduct commission for any winning bet made on the exchanges.
Tuesday - Northampton to win at Bristol Rovers
The following five matches to be backed both as draws and also in the under 2.5 goals market (let's see if my draw record can match Cassini's).
Tuesday- Ipswich v Southampton
Sheff U v Walsall
Cheltenham v Morecambe
Wednesday - Cardiff v Brighton
Blackpool v Derby
I make that 11 points staked in all. Best of luck if following.
Wednesday 3 August 2011
Introduction
First of all the title of the blog. Obviously a nod of appreciation to the daddy of all sports related blogs and the one that's likely to be going long after most of us have gone to the wall.
The title of the blog does nevertheless bear significant relevance to its content, as it's a football profit and loss blog with the selections (all system based) exclusively dependent on the defensive qualities of both teams rather than the more common and rather obvious 'Manchester United have scored 7 in the last 2 games and must be good value ?!!? to win again today. That approach may work - I've no idea, I've never tried it- but if it does it's going to bring out the obvious selections that the bookies have got well covered. On the other hand Brian Clough (who managed my club Derby for the best 6 years of their lives) used to say that a good goalkeeper was worth a goal start.What's good enough for him will do for me. Goalies are the last line of defence and there was a time when all goalkeepers used to wear green. With me so far?
Anyway I didn't get into football betting seriously until about three years ago. And of course it started with outright win results, never the draw because who wants to watch a match and see a draw, not me - not then anyway. But of course as Cassini has alluded to in the past, fewer people back the draw so therefore the bookies offer better odds for it.
Couldn't make a profit from outright wins so back to the drawing board and started looking at the over under 2.5 goals market. Only 2 possible outcomes and liquidity isn't too much of a problem in most of the leagues I look at, which incidentally are the English Premier League, Championship, Leagues one and two and the French, German, Italian and Spanish versions of the Premier League. That's plenty for me. Anyway, as I was saying , only 2 possible outcomes, should be fairly easy to get an edge so get one and hey presto! Well it wasn't that easy of course. If it was we'd all be doing it and then of course the edge would disappear. So I made another trip back to the drawing board, the first of many as it turned out over the last three seasons.Which of course you need to. Sit on your backside for too long and any edge will disappear whist you're scratching it.
To cut a long story short I very gradually developed a system to select matches suitable for an over or under 2.5 goals bet. These produced sideline bets, since both teams had to pass the system requirements before a bet was indicated. For example any match which I backed on the over 2.5 goals market was almost always also a candidate for the Both Teams To Score market.Likewise you don't have to be Einstein to deduce that a match in which you think 2 or less goals will be scored is also more likely to be a draw than one where the goalies are frequently retrieving the ball from the back of the net (there are 6 possible scorelines with 2 goals or less - 2 of them are draws). The odds on offer for the draw, never less than 2-1, means that if you are backing in the under 2.5 goals market it makes sense to back the draw as well and I had considerable success with this last season. One further benefit from my final version of the system was that it threw up the occasional match where one team was currently considerably defensively superior to the other and these I did back in the home or away market.
So my intention is to publish all my bets in advance on the blog this season. I categorically don't have a separate subscription based website I'm trying to get people interested in and I absolutely have nothing to sell. The reason I'm publishing them is that I want a permanent record of them all in one place and, if I'm honest and things go according to plan, so people can look back and say well perhaps he has got something.
The only thing I can say is that I am as confident as you can be with something like this. I will be betting every selection on here (to small stakes as sometimes there can be a lot of bets on the same day) and if things go as they have done for the last two seasons I will make a profit - but if they don't, I won't. There won't be any selections until at least one league has had two sets of matches as I need that many before the system kicks in and in any case early season form is unreliable.I am also having a week's holiday towards the end of August, during which I won't be touching a computer with a bargepole. I am undecided about dipping my toe in the water before I go away but I will post in plenty of time so people know my intentions.
The title of the blog does nevertheless bear significant relevance to its content, as it's a football profit and loss blog with the selections (all system based) exclusively dependent on the defensive qualities of both teams rather than the more common and rather obvious 'Manchester United have scored 7 in the last 2 games and must be good value ?!!? to win again today. That approach may work - I've no idea, I've never tried it- but if it does it's going to bring out the obvious selections that the bookies have got well covered. On the other hand Brian Clough (who managed my club Derby for the best 6 years of their lives) used to say that a good goalkeeper was worth a goal start.What's good enough for him will do for me. Goalies are the last line of defence and there was a time when all goalkeepers used to wear green. With me so far?
Anyway I didn't get into football betting seriously until about three years ago. And of course it started with outright win results, never the draw because who wants to watch a match and see a draw, not me - not then anyway. But of course as Cassini has alluded to in the past, fewer people back the draw so therefore the bookies offer better odds for it.
Couldn't make a profit from outright wins so back to the drawing board and started looking at the over under 2.5 goals market. Only 2 possible outcomes and liquidity isn't too much of a problem in most of the leagues I look at, which incidentally are the English Premier League, Championship, Leagues one and two and the French, German, Italian and Spanish versions of the Premier League. That's plenty for me. Anyway, as I was saying , only 2 possible outcomes, should be fairly easy to get an edge so get one and hey presto! Well it wasn't that easy of course. If it was we'd all be doing it and then of course the edge would disappear. So I made another trip back to the drawing board, the first of many as it turned out over the last three seasons.Which of course you need to. Sit on your backside for too long and any edge will disappear whist you're scratching it.
To cut a long story short I very gradually developed a system to select matches suitable for an over or under 2.5 goals bet. These produced sideline bets, since both teams had to pass the system requirements before a bet was indicated. For example any match which I backed on the over 2.5 goals market was almost always also a candidate for the Both Teams To Score market.Likewise you don't have to be Einstein to deduce that a match in which you think 2 or less goals will be scored is also more likely to be a draw than one where the goalies are frequently retrieving the ball from the back of the net (there are 6 possible scorelines with 2 goals or less - 2 of them are draws). The odds on offer for the draw, never less than 2-1, means that if you are backing in the under 2.5 goals market it makes sense to back the draw as well and I had considerable success with this last season. One further benefit from my final version of the system was that it threw up the occasional match where one team was currently considerably defensively superior to the other and these I did back in the home or away market.
So my intention is to publish all my bets in advance on the blog this season. I categorically don't have a separate subscription based website I'm trying to get people interested in and I absolutely have nothing to sell. The reason I'm publishing them is that I want a permanent record of them all in one place and, if I'm honest and things go according to plan, so people can look back and say well perhaps he has got something.
The only thing I can say is that I am as confident as you can be with something like this. I will be betting every selection on here (to small stakes as sometimes there can be a lot of bets on the same day) and if things go as they have done for the last two seasons I will make a profit - but if they don't, I won't. There won't be any selections until at least one league has had two sets of matches as I need that many before the system kicks in and in any case early season form is unreliable.I am also having a week's holiday towards the end of August, during which I won't be touching a computer with a bargepole. I am undecided about dipping my toe in the water before I go away but I will post in plenty of time so people know my intentions.
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