Tuesday 31 January 2012

Midweek bets

Very busy at the moment so apologies late posting. Straight on with the bets.

HOMES Leicester 2.1

DRAWS None

AWAYS WBA 4.75, Derby 3.1,Burnley 3.0, Brighton 3.3

UNDER 2.5 None

OVER 2.5 Millwall 2.2

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Tottenham 2.2, Millwall 2.1

8 bets and I have staked £7.50 on each so that's £60 altogether. Good luck if following.

Friday 27 January 2012

Additional bets

When I posted this weekend's bets last night (see previous post) I was unable to access the information I needed for the French league, so it was my intention to omit the French bets this weekend. I have now managed to solve the problem , which has resulted in 4 extra bets so I  have edited the previous post to include these. I have asterisked the additional bets.

Thursday 26 January 2012

Bets for 27th - 29th January

An early post for this weekend - one of the reasons being that one of the bets (Chesterfield) plays on Friday night and another being that whilst placing the bets I noticed that a few of them were already shortening up.

So far this season we have staked £2889 and all but £2.50 of it has been returned. Of course this disguises how the individual categories are performing. Had you chosen just to bet the over 2.5 s and Both teams to score you would have been looking at a nice return of investment over the season of 12.2% after 226 bets, this is after deduction of commission. If instead you you had settled for just the home and away bets you would have staked £450 and had returned £436.50, a loss of just 3%. Finally, if you had settled for just the draws and the under 2.5 goals you may have been rather disappointed by a loss of 12.3%, particularly when you considered that up until 6 weeks ago the draws had been leading the portfolio

As Cassini has pointed out  poor runs are to be expected, as of course are old age, death and the return of Celebrity Big Brother - that doesn't make any of them more welcome when they arrive. For a while I have been concerned at the low number of homes and aways selected as opposed to the other types of bets.This has been due to me narrowing the selection parameters which I've used  in the previous two years (before starting this blog) in order to discard some of the more unlikely selections. Inevitably I  have discarded too many decent priced winners and profit, so from this weekend I am relaxing the parameters for these types of bets. I've not tinkered at all with the over 2.5s and Both Teams To Score as these are performing nicely both in returns of strike rate and roi. (cue a 100% failure for these types of bets this weekend).

Enough waffle and on with the bets, then really must get down to finishing off the tax return which must be filed next Tuesday or it's a £100 fine.

HOMES  Bristol Rovers 2.25, Accrington Stanley 2.5

WATSON None - just a little joke.

DRAWS Chesterfield 3.6, Exeter 3.6, Brest* 3.25, Rennes* 3.1, Real Madrid 16.0 (just a little word about this one - once the parameters have been determined the system automatically throws up  the bets - there is no further input from me- and occasionally it picks one which you would have preferred it not to have done; as you can see from the odds it appears to have very little chance. I still bet them all  (the only thing that's certain in life is death) and to level stakes, but always with stakes which I can afford to lose.

AWAYS Aldershot 3.25, Parma 3.2, Sevilla 3.6

UNDER 2.5 GOALS Chesterfield 2.12, Real Madrid 4.33

OVER 2.5 GOALS Cesena 2.54, Palermo 2.04, Real Betis 2.18, Auxerre* 2.4

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Cesena 2.06, Palermo 2.05, Real Betis 2.1,Auxerre* 2.0

20 bets and I have staked £7.50 on each, a total of £150. Good luck if following.

Tuesday 24 January 2012

Tonight's bets

A profit of £21 at the weekend leaves us back in overall profit for the season, if only just, i.e. plus £9.50

2 bets for tonight, both in division 2

DRAW Torquay 4.2

AWAY Macclesfield  4.0

I have staked £6 on each. Good luck if following.

Friday 20 January 2012

Bets for 21st and 22nd January

A small profit last week which leaves us £11.50 down on the total £2577 staked throughout the season. Those figures disguise  a very poor run by the Draws section , which has gone from being the star of the portfolio up to about a month ago to the Rogue Trader, attempting to bring down the portfolio single handed. A run of just 2 draws in the last 34 has seen  my agent  fending off approaches from Lay The Draw. On the other hand, Both Teams to Score has a season strike rate of 63% and a return on investment of 16.1%.

This weekend's bets.....

HOMES None

DRAWS Man City 3.85. Cardiff 3.8, Charlton 3.55, Cheltenham 3.75, Cagliari 3.2, Racing Santander 3.3, Real Sociedad 3.45

AWAYS Fulham 4.2,  Barnet 2.875

UNDER 2.5  GOALS Man City 2.18, Cardiff 1.83, Charlton 2.0, Cheltenham 2.0, Real Sociedad 1.8

OVER 2.5 GOALS Bury 2.04, Bradford 1.91, Palermo 2.0, Udinese 2.15

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Bury 1.82, Bradford 1.8, Palermo 1.83,  Udinese 2.2

Stake remains at £6 each on all selections this week, so multiplied by 22 bets  = £138 staked.

Good luck if following.

Friday 13 January 2012

Bets for 14th - 15th Jan and review of Christmas/New Year period

Now that the dust has settled from the holiday bets we are £21.50 down over the whole of the season from £2577 staked. Within that small loss obviously some categories are obviously doing better than others. Star of the show is the  'Both teams to score' section which is well in profit. On the other hand the 'under 2.5 ' section has not been in profit all season (the only section not to have been at one stage or another). The 'draws' section, which until recently was sharing top billing, has now been afflicted by a run of just 2 in the last 26, all of which leads me to believe that there may just be more goals around generally just now. I do remember watching Sky Sports afternoon football show (think it was the day after New Year's Day) and from a full English and Scottish programme of 46 matches there wasn't one nil nil scoreline and that was with about ten minutes still to go. Anyway, on to this weekend's bets.

HOMES Ajaccio 2.875

DRAWS Derby 3.75 Sheff Wed 3.4 Accrington 4.0 Rotherham 3.4 PSG 4.0 AC Milan 3.3 Osasuna 3.6

AWAYS Roma 2.4 Siena 4.1

OVER 2.5 GOALS Brentford 2.06 Plymouth 2.0 Port Vale 1.9 Yeovil 2.12  Dijon 2.25 Cesena 2.375

UNDER 2.5 GOALS Derby 1.8 Sheff Wed 2.0 Accrington 2. Rotherham 1.83 PSG 1.73 AC Milan 1.79 Osasuna 1.85

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Brentford 1.91 Plymouth 1.73 Port Vale 1.73 Yeovil 1.84  Dijon 1.91  Cesena 2.1

29 bets and staking £6 this week on each of them, so that's £174 altogether.

Good luck if following.

Friday 6 January 2012

My bets for 7th and 8th January

A very short programme this weekend due to the FA Cup which my system does not cover plus the fact that half of Europe is still on its winter break

DRAWS Aldershot 3.4  Roma 3.85

AWAYS Leyton Orient 4.0

OVER 2.5 Cagliari 2.38 Palermo 2,1

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Cagliari 2.05

and that's it. Just 6 bets and stake is £8 on each, making £48 staked,

Good luck if following.

Sunday 1 January 2012

In the middle.......

........or hopefully at the end of a poor run which has seen overall profit for the season fall to £5.50. That nevertheless covers 437 straight bets without any trading and has also been all at virtually level stakes. If I can more than break even over level stakes with this number of bets I should be able to improve profits with some sort of a staking plan incorporating partial loss recovery, as opposed to attempting total loss recovery which is of course the quickest way to the poorhouse other than giving Mrs Pullover money to go shopping with.

I don't intend to go into details regarding the staking plan but as this blog is a record of my bets I will list the current stakes against each set of bets so everybody can see how much is going where. Stakes for any one bet will be between £4 and £16, though I doubt if the upper limits will need to be approached.

 For this set of bets all stakes are £4, but for future sets differing categories will have different stake levels, depending on results. Anyway, on with the bets for Monday and Tuesday; prices given where bets already placed.

HOMES Rochdale 2.625

DRAWS Tottenham 4.2  Cardiff 3.4 Peterborough 3.5 Bristol City 3.4 Rotherham 3.65

AWAYS Burnley 3.5 Coventry 9.0 Cheltenham 3.0

UNDER 2.5 GOALS  Tottenham  Cardiff  Peterborough 2.05 Rotherham

OVER 2.5 GOALS Doncaster 1.97  Exeter 2.1 Barnet 1.8 Crewe 1.94

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Exeter 1.91

18 bets altogether, all at £4 =£72 staked.