There is a bet tonight but we'll get to that in a minute. I'd like to mention the weekend's results just now because they were good and part of the reason they were good was because Inter Milan were beaten at home by Novara. Inter were priced up at long odds on because they were near the top of the legaue and were playing host to Novara who were rooted firmly to the bottom.Whilst Inter might have won the match 70 times out of 100, the prices just didn't reflect the fact that they had conceded 4 in each of their previous 2 outings. The recommended bet was Novara with the safeguard of stake refunded if the match finished drawn and I got odds of nearly 11-1 after commission on that basis. As long as the majority of gamblers continue to only take note of league positions there will be value available.
On to tonight's bet: SOUTHEND are a bet away at Gillingham. I have staked £9 and the best odds currently available are 2.87. Normally Monday night matches would have been included with last weekend's bets but at the time Gillingham were scheduled to play on Saturday as well, though in the event the match was postponed.
If anyone's interested in the current state of play, so far this season we have had 599 bets (269 have won) and staked a total of £3496.50. Profit is £188.50 which represents an roi of 5.4%.
Back tomorrow with the midweek bets.
Well done with Novara mate.
ReplyDeleteCouldn’t agree more concerning league tables and the fact that there is value to be found in going against obvious teams that appear to be nailed on to win.
That’s obviously one standout example and of course, it’s nice when they win but in the long-term, it’s much, much easier to find an edge at footie by going against these short priced favs in my opinion.
You’ve pulled your ROI up to something very respectable over a high volume of bets. Well done.
Graeme
Hi Graeme and thanks very much for the positive comments. Yes you need an awful lot of odds on winners don't you to equal the sort of returns you can get from looking instead for the less than obvious. Must say in turn that I've picked some useful stuff from your blog and from a selfish point of view I'm glad you're back from holiday - hadn't appreciated till I read some of the blog comments that it was your honeymoon so congratulations. Looking forward to your bets tomorrow as I've developed my own system for following several of them.
ReplyDeleteGet a room you two.
ReplyDeleteCan't - alas, I am already betrothed to The Sultan.
ReplyDelete