An early post for this weekend - one of the reasons being that one of the bets (Chesterfield) plays on Friday night and another being that whilst placing the bets I noticed that a few of them were already shortening up.
So far this season we have staked £2889 and all but £2.50 of it has been returned. Of course this disguises how the individual categories are performing. Had you chosen just to bet the over 2.5 s and Both teams to score you would have been looking at a nice return of investment over the season of 12.2% after 226 bets, this is after deduction of commission. If instead you you had settled for just the home and away bets you would have staked £450 and had returned £436.50, a loss of just 3%. Finally, if you had settled for just the draws and the under 2.5 goals you may have been rather disappointed by a loss of 12.3%, particularly when you considered that up until 6 weeks ago the draws had been leading the portfolio
As Cassini has pointed out poor runs are to be expected, as of course are old age, death and the return of Celebrity Big Brother - that doesn't make any of them more welcome when they arrive. For a while I have been concerned at the low number of homes and aways selected as opposed to the other types of bets.This has been due to me narrowing the selection parameters which I've used in the previous two years (before starting this blog) in order to discard some of the more unlikely selections. Inevitably I have discarded too many decent priced winners and profit, so from this weekend I am relaxing the parameters for these types of bets. I've not tinkered at all with the over 2.5s and Both Teams To Score as these are performing nicely both in returns of strike rate and roi. (cue a 100% failure for these types of bets this weekend).
Enough waffle and on with the bets, then really must get down to finishing off the tax return which must be filed next Tuesday or it's a £100 fine.
HOMES Bristol Rovers 2.25, Accrington Stanley 2.5
WATSON None - just a little joke.
DRAWS Chesterfield 3.6, Exeter 3.6, Brest* 3.25, Rennes* 3.1, Real Madrid 16.0 (just a little word about this one - once the parameters have been determined the system automatically throws up the bets - there is no further input from me- and occasionally it picks one which you would have preferred it not to have done; as you can see from the odds it appears to have very little chance. I still bet them all (the only thing that's certain in life is death) and to level stakes, but always with stakes which I can afford to lose.
AWAYS Aldershot 3.25, Parma 3.2, Sevilla 3.6
UNDER 2.5 GOALS Chesterfield 2.12, Real Madrid 4.33
OVER 2.5 GOALS Cesena 2.54, Palermo 2.04, Real Betis 2.18, Auxerre* 2.4
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE Cesena 2.06, Palermo 2.05, Real Betis 2.1,Auxerre* 2.0
20 bets and I have staked £7.50 on each, a total of £150. Good luck if following.
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